Decoding Bitcoin Dominance and Market Cycles: A Practical Guide

“You can’t time the market”

-Some idiot who probably never made money in crypto

If you don’t have a plan for what the top of a market looks like, HOW can you develop a plan to SELL your crypto for profits?!? You’ll need to have a plan as to how high you project the market to go, as well as an opinion about price targets for each of the tokens you hold. You will also need an opinion about how long a given cycle will last so that either your price target is hit or your timeline is met to ensure you are taking profits responsibly and consistently.

As someone who’s spent years analyzing cryptocurrency trends, I’m here to unpack Bitcoin dominance, historical market cycles, and what they could mean for future prices. This post breaks down the data into digestible insights, showing how Bitcoin’s influence shifts, how long bull markets tend to run, and what altcoins might experience as Bitcoin’s price climbs. I’ve also created some charts to make the numbers easier to grasp. Let’s dive into it!

What Is Bitcoin Dominance?

Bitcoin dominance measures Bitcoin’s share of the total cryptocurrency market cap. When it drops, altcoins—like Ethereum or Solana—start to shine, a pattern typical of bull markets. When it rises, investors often retreat to Bitcoin, signaling a bear market. Here’s how this has looked in past cycles:

• 2017 Bull Market: Bitcoin’s dominance began at 80% in early 2017. The ICO frenzy fueled altcoin growth, pushing dominance down to 37% by December, when Bitcoin hit $20,000. Altcoins peaked in January 2018, and dominance rose again as the bear market took hold.

• 2021 Bull Market: Starting at 70% in early 2021, dominance fell to 40% by May as altcoins surged. Bitcoin peaked at $69,000 in November, but altcoins had topped out in May. By early 2022, dominance climbed as the market cooled.

This chart captures those shifts:

How Long Does a Bull Market Last?

History shows that after Bitcoin breaks its previous all-time high (ATH) and holds steady, the bull market runs for about 10-11 months before peaking:

• 2013: Bitcoin surpassed its prior ATH early in the year, peaking 11 months later.

• 2017: It broke the 2013 ATH in February, reaching $20,000 ten months later in December.

• 2021: Bitcoin passed its 2017 ATH in December 2020, hitting $69,000 eleven months later in November.

Looking ahead, if Bitcoin hits a new ATH in late 2024 or early 2025, the bull market could peak around late 2025 or early 2026. Here’s a visual of that timeline:

Bitcoin Price Scenarios and Altcoin Growth

When Bitcoin’s price rises, it lifts the entire crypto market. Assuming 50% dominance, here’s how different price levels could impact market caps:

• Bitcoin at $100,000
  Bitcoin Market Cap: $1.9 trillion
  Total Market Cap: $3.8 trillion
  Altcoin Market Cap: $1.9 trillion
  Top Altcoins: #10 ($28.5B), #20 ($14.25B), #50 ($5.7B), #100 ($1.9B)

• Bitcoin at $150,000
  Bitcoin Market Cap: $2.85 trillion
  Total Market Cap: $5.7 trillion
  Altcoin Market Cap: $2.85 trillion
  Top Altcoins: #10 ($42.75B), #20 ($21.375B), #50 ($8.55B), #100 ($2.85B)

• Bitcoin at $250,000
  Bitcoin Market Cap: $4.75 trillion
  Total Market Cap: $9.5 trillion
  Altcoin Market Cap: $4.75 trillion
  Top Altcoins: #10 ($71.25B), #20 ($35.625B), #50 ($14.25B), #100 ($4.75B)

This chart shows the potential growth:

When Does Dominance Turn Around?

Bitcoin dominance typically falls for 4-10 months during a bull market before bottoming out and rising in a bear market:

• 2017: Dropped for 10 months, then recovered in 2-3 months.

• 2021: Fell for 4-5 months, with a 4-6 month rebound.

For the next cycle, dominance might decline for 6-10 months during a bull run. Altcoins often peak 1-3 months after Bitcoin’s high, with dominance recovering within 3-6 months. Here’s the pattern:

What It All Means

Here’s the rundown:

• Bull Market Timing: After breaking an ATH, Bitcoin’s bull run lasts 10-11 months.

• Dominance Shifts: It drops for 4-10 months in bull markets, then rises in bear markets.

• Altcoin Peaks: Altcoins hit their highs 1-3 months after Bitcoin.

• Market Cap Potential: At $100K, $150K, or $250K, the total market could reach $3.8T, $5.7T, or $9.5T.

• Next Peak: A new ATH in late 2024/early 2025 suggests a bull market top in late 2025/early 2026.

By watching Bitcoin dominance and understanding these cycles, you can better time your moves in the crypto space. It’s all about seeing where the money flows—whether it’s into Bitcoin or spilling over to altcoins.

I’ll plan to write future posts about how to think about laddering out of your positions as the bull market progresses.